Positive Outlook for Year-End Export Opportunities

Following a subdued growth performance in the initial half of the current year, Vietnam's export activities have undergone a substantial improvement, buoyed by the recent favorable economic outcomes. Projections indicate that the total export turnover for 2023 is poised to reach US$350 billion.

Vietnam earned over US$1.63 billion in durian exports within the first nine months of the year

As reported by the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's export turnover in October 2023 reached an estimated US$32.25 billion, marking a 5.1% increase from September 2023. This marks the fourth consecutive month where export turnover surpassed US$30 billion.

While export turnover had declined by 11.6% by the end of June, amounting to over US$165 billion, the situation witnessed a positive turn by the end of October, with the export turnover standing at US$291.46 billion, reflecting a more modest 7% decline compared to the same period in 2022. Notably, October saw eight product groups achieving an export turnover exceeding US$1 billion.

The resurgence in the U.S. and Chinese economies - Vietnam's primary trading partners, has been instrumental in sustaining the acceleration of exports. Complemented by concerted efforts such as supporting domestic production, trade promotion, and market expansion, import-export activities continue on an upward trajectory.

According to the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), the most challenging phase for the market in 2023 has passed, and a gradual yet steadfast recovery is underway. Despite persisting global economic challenges, positive signs of recovery manifested in the gradual return of orders in the latter months of the year, supported by favorable domestic economic factors like falling interest rates and a stable VND/USD exchange rate.

The U.S. market stands out as a "bright spot" for the textile and garment sector, with September's export turnover witnessing a 2% increase over the previous year, totaling US$1.05 billion. Vietnam maintains its position as the second-largest garment exporter to the U.S., commanding a market share exceeding 18%. The recent elevation of Vietnam-U.S. relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership in September 2023 is anticipated to further enhance trade ties, particularly in textiles and garments.

While textiles find a prominent market in the U.S., seafood experiences a positive trend in the Chinese market. The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) reported a sharp rise in Vietnam's seafood exports to China, notably in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Shanghai. Favorable factors in China, including revived seafood demand and a shift in economic structure, position Vietnam's seafood enterprises for deeper market penetration. China's dependence on imported seafood is escalating, with imports reaching US$14.14 billion in 2022, a 14.7% increase from the previous year.

Beyond textiles and fisheries, vital agricultural sectors, including fruits and vegetables, sustain robust growth, contributing significantly to the country's overall turnover. Noteworthy achievements include a 75.5% increase in fruit and vegetable export turnover, reaching US$4.82 billion; a 34% rise in rice export turnover, reaching US$3.95 billion; and a 15.9% increase in cashew nut export turnover, totaling US$2.95 billion.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported that from the beginning of the year until now, Vietnam’s export turnovers of jackfruit, mango, longan, grapefruit, and watermelon to markets like China, Japan, the Netherlands, and the Republic of Korea have increased sharply by 45%-150% over the same period last year. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecast that Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable export turnover in 2023 will reach over US$5 billion.

Looking ahead, a positive trajectory is anticipated for Vietnam's export activities in the final two months of the year, driven by heightened consumer demand during the approaching Christmas and New Year seasons.

By Huong Ly, Vietnam Business Forum