The Department of Cultivation under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has recently released a report that Vietnam may consume all of its produced rice and will no longer export rice in 2020. The report was made based on the population growth in the Mekong Delta region as well as in Vietnam and on undeveloped agriculture at present.
The department also estimated that the country’s rice acreage will decrease by 100,000 hectares to four million hectares by 2010 compared with the figure in 2007. The area will gradually fall in the following years and will stay at 3.6 million ha by 2030. The cultivated area will also decrease to 6.8 million ha from 7.2 million ha during the period. The rice acreage and cultivated area in the Mekong Delta region will fall 113,000 ha and 123,000 ha, respectively during the period. However, the country’s rice production will reach 39.6 million tonnes by 2010, up 3.6 million tonnes against the figure in 2007. The rice production will be kept stable and may be raised by synchronically improving cultivation standard for farmers in combination with accomplishing a synchronic and mechanized irrigation system.
Over the past 20 years, Vietnam’s rice production increased sharply, thanks to application of agricultural technology. However, some scientists warned that the rise in the production has gradually reached its peak and it may not rise as it did previously. The rice production of the Mekong Delta region may reach only 21 million tonnes on a total rice acreage of 1.8 million ha by 2020, a slight increase from current 19 million tonnes on 1.9 million ha. Meanwhile, the regional population will increase by three million people and that of the whole country will rise by 13 million people in next 10 years. The ratio of food on population signals a dull future for national food security and socioeconomic development, an official of the Agriculture Department said.
In recent years, Vietnam has risen to the second biggest rice exporter in the world with an annual rice export volume of four-five million tonnes. However, the country will hardly maintain its status due to the increasing domestic rice demand, narrowing rice acreage, and more farmers finding other occupations.
Meanwhile, despite of the good status of rice production, Vietnam has outdated technologies that will not help raise the production but will lower rice quality.
Vietnam’s rice export is priced lower than that of Thailand, India, the U.S and Pakistan, which averages at only US$220.1 per tonnes and is equal to only 79.65 percent of the world rate. Therefore, Vietnam rice export revenue is still 11.3 percent lower than that of the U.S even though the Southeast Asian country’s rice export volume is 21.5 percent higher than the U.S.
According to estimation by some scientists, Vietnam can get rid of the risks if relevant authorities take drastic short-term and long-term measures with the support of farmers. The measures include giving priority to equipment and facilities that will help raise the rice production, reduce production costs and slash losses after harvesting, which means that the country should professionalize rice production. In addition, the country should speed up combination of small paddy fields in the Red River Delta to ensure rice production centralization while smoothly regulating rice exports for the sake of farmers in a bid to encourage them to continue to grow rice.
Thanh Yen
Vietnamese
