On the sideline of the meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Trade on October 4 in Hanoi, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Bui Xuan Khu said the export sector is experiencing a tough time as the export turnover in the first nine months of 2009 slumped 14 per cent year on year to US$41.7 billion. However, the export will be in the best shape in 2010.
Vietnam’s export growth is negative for the first time for nearly 20 years. What do you think about this?
The export revenue has generally tumbled on declining prices amid global economic crisis. In fact, most exported goods have increased in volume. For instance, rice shipments rose 34 per cent; crude oil, 10 per cent; and coal, 2 per cent. Volumes of exported farm producers like pepper, rubber and tea. The increase in exported quantities in the context of shrinking markets in most countries is a feat indeed.
Unfortunately, the price plunged from 2008. Even, prices of several commodities fell by 50 per cent. The growing volume fails to offset falling price, leading to a decline in value.
Compared with other nations, the export slump of Vietnam is low. In many countries, the average drop is 20-30 per cent while the decline in Vietnam is only 14.3 per cent.
Do you think the export decline will be over soon?
The time of 2009 is not very long. Export-boosting measures are being applied, but in the last three months, if new measures are adopted, the effectiveness is also limited. I think many solutions executed in 2009 will bring in fruits in 2010.
Crude oil for export will be limited in the last months of 2009 because we have to feed the Dung Quat refinery. Volumes of exported agricultural products ballooned but industrials slowly recovered.
Vietnam targets at US$62.54 billion of export turnover in 2010, a rise of 6 per cent from 2009. Specifically, the domestic sector will earn US$39.4 billion, accounting for 63 per cent of the total, while the foreign-led sector will make US$23.14 billion, or 37 per cent of the total. Key exports like rice, coffee, rubber and seafood are forecast to grow 5 - 10 per cent.
What do you say about widening trade deficit in recent months?
Looking at the figure, the trade deficit narrowed from a year earlier. In the first nine months of 2008, our trade deficit was US$12 billion, equal to nearly 30 per cent of total export revenue in the period, while the amount between January and September of this year was US$6.5 billion, equal to nearly 16 per cent of the export turnover. I think the result comes from our efforts to control imports.
In general, the trade gap is still under control. We are required to cap the trade deficit at US$10-11 billion this year, not above 20 per cent of export turnover.
The Vietnam - Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (VJEPA) officially took effect from October 1, 2009. How is the export prospect of Vietnam after this event?
Many commodities facing numerous difficulties in penetrating the Japanese markets, such as apparel, agricultural products, foods, vegetables and fruits, will enjoy tax preferences. However, the change in the next three months will not be clear but until 2010. The two countries expect the bilateral trade turnover to expand by 1.5 per cent - 2 per cent.
Reported by Huong Ly
Vietnamese
