In preparation for the 9th session meeting of the National Assembly of Vietnam to be held in March, examinations of the Government’s reports on socioeconomic situations are being carried out by the National Assembly Economic Committee.
And, on February 15, the supplementary report on social and economic situations in 2010 was completed by the Ministry of Planning and Investment and sent to the National Assembly Economic Committee and was enclosed with appendices of detailed evaluation of targets reached in the year.
In addition to estimations approved in the 8th session meeting of National Assembly are reviewed outcomes last year.
Complete with targets, the "reassessment" has shown impressive numbers. That is the growth rate of exports to 26.4 % (estimated completion is 19.1 %), up 26.4 % compared with 2009 and 4 times targets by the National Assembly.
With targets completed, “reviewed” column represented impressive figures: Export turnover rose 26.4 % from 2009 (estimation is 19.1 %). The report represented many other “increase” and “excess” values. For instance, the state budget revenues reached 570,288 billion, exceeding 23.6 % of the estimate and 8 % of the report of the National Assembly. Social investment capital totalled VND803.3 trillion, up 17.1 % from 2009 and equal 41.9 % of the GDP (compared with 39.5 % as planned). Or, compared with December 2009, gold price index rose 30 % and US dollar price index climbed 9.68 %. In 2010, corresponding growths were 36.72 % and 7.63 %.
Overall, among 21 targets approved by the National Assembly, only four failed to reach their targets, particularly consumer price index (CPI), clean water access in urban zones, solid waste collection in urban zones, tertiary education enrolment, and forest coverage.
In the general assessment, the report used only three out of 17 lines to represent restrictions and the rest were optimistic remarks like “Socioeconomic situation in 2010 developed in a positive trend, the economy recovered rapidly in the context of complex international conditions, people's living standards were improved, etc.”
However, at a recent expanded meeting of the Standing Committee for Economic Affairs, remarks like "weak," “weak and shortcoming” or “extremely weak” are used for real strengths of the economy. And, high growths were sometimes interpreted in negative stances.
Deputy Chairman of the Economic Committee Le Quoc Dung said the economy is sinking deeper into the "corruption" and it needs to be quickly cured.
“It seems to be good news to have only four out of 21 criteria fail to meet targets but only CPI growth has destroyed a lot," Mr Dung said.
He noted that inflation spiralled up in the recent years. “Inflation is destroying people's assets and forced them to use gold, land and apartments, etc as safer shelters. It also caused negative impacts on many policies. We ought to have a more proper look to what we have reached and what we did not reach,” Dung stressed.
Sharing the same concerns of inflation over impacts on people’s lives, Deputy Chairman of the Economic Committee Nguyen Van Phuc used a comedy to compare with price. That is, a man holds a ice cube to go to the market but it corrodes into a tiny piece.
Inflation also negated growths in many fields like GDP or export.
At a meeting in last October, just before the 8th session meeting of the National Assembly, when the Government proposed to cap inflation growth at 7-8 %, some members of the National Assembly Standing Committee asked in severe voice that “How will the growth mean then?”
In 2010, CPI growth was officially quoted at nearly 12 %. For years, the local dong continuously depreciated against other currencies. Dr Tran Du Lich, Commissioner of the Economic Committee, expressed his deep concerns about this reality. For him, the outcomes are resulted from “weak and shortcoming” strengths of the economy.
Governor of State Bank Nguyen Van Giau also noted that the year 2010 was "less peaceful" than 2009. Macroeconomic instability sometimes spurred because root problems of the economy have not been solved and authorities blamed responsibility each other.
Attendants at the meeting shared the view that growth is being threatened by inflation to a certain extent. Many “diseases” have not been cured like high ICOR (incremental capital-output ratio), big budget deficit, long trade deficit, etc. Meanwhile, steps to restructure the economy - the issue has become urgent - remain vague.
Thus, not many optimistic forecasts are made for 2011 although the Government presents major solutions on more than 10 pages. Priority solutions include controlling inflation, ensuring market stability, managing monetary policies initiatively, flexibly and prudently, operating market-based exchange rates, etc.
Right at the meeting, Deputy Construction Minister Trinh Dinh Dung said that in 2011 the Vietnamese economy is certainly facing numerous difficulties and even at thornier levels than in previous years and the biggest pressure is rising prices of fundamental commodities.
"Vietnam has never stood before such a huge pressure,” he said. Many confessed that given requirement by the National Assembly, inflation control will be very difficult in 2011. Therefore, Vietnam should have effective measures to reduce aggregate demand, accelerate economic restructuring, and improve the quality and efficiency of investment. (VNE)
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