The investigation was conducted from 22nd November 2013 to 10th December 2013. Its subjects are all domestic FIs and branches of foreign banks in Vietnam. The result shows that the tendency of monetary and banking sector continuously followed the proposed direction and target of the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).
The investigation was conducted from 22nd November 2013 to 10th December 2013. Its subjects are all domestic FIs and branches of foreign banks in Vietnam. The result shows that the tendency of monetary and banking sector continuously followed the proposed direction and target of the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).
Firstly, according to FIs’ assessment, internal factors, which directly impact FIs’ performance like: financial capacity, human resources, equipment, technologies, policy and risk management ability, interest rate policy, credit, exchange rates, policy and services for customers of FIs that will likely become more favourable in the fourth quarter of 2013 than that in the previous quarter and continue to improve in 2014.
Following the same tendency of internal factors, most objective factors of finance - banking business factors like: credit policy, interest rate and exchange rates, management mechanism, regulations of banking business safety of SBV, demands from economy, competition from other FIs are forecast to become stable or little more favourable in the fourth quarter of 2013 than that in the previous quarter (though not good as internal factors) and will be improving in 2014.
As the result, in the fourth quarter of 2013, FIs had positive business improvements compared to the third quarter of 2013, meaning the first notice since SBV investigated business tendency of FIs, assessing that the real performance would be better than previous expectation. This situation displays a bright sign of recovery and positive development of banking sector in the last quarter of 2013 and a potential expectation in 2014.
Secondly, demands for FIs’ services of customers were recovered and slightly improved in the last months of 2013, and expected to have slight improvement in 2014, especially with demands for deposits and credits. Among them, credit demands from individuals and demands from small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are always higher than demands from enterprises.
Most FIs express that they maintained or depreciated prices of their services packages in the fourth quarter of 2013 and expected to stably maintain it in the first quarter of 2014 to encourage customers to use banking products and services.
Thirdly, FIs forecast risk level of groups of customers will not be changed significantly in the first quarter of 2014, but gradually be lower toward the end of 2014. Especially, over 50 percent of FIs expect that the State enterprises restructuring will help reduce risk of these groups in 2014. Furthermore, the result showed that FIs increasingly believe in stability of banking sector, improvement and development in accountability of partners in inter-bank market in the first quarter of 2014 as well as in the whole 2014.
Fourthly, most FIs expect to be able to mobilise capital and their credit balance in 2014 will be higher than that in 2013 with normal increase of 10 - 20 percent. In particular, mobilised capital and credit balance in short-term of under six months are forecast to have higher growth than those in long-term.
Fifthly, the investigation result also expressed that most FIs indicated their liquidity remained stable or improved in the fourth quarter of 2013 both for VND and foreign currencies. This situation is expected to continue in 2014. FIs also said that their rate of bad debts on credit balance decreased in the fourth quarter of 2013 and expects to keep decreasing in the first quarter of 2014.
Apart from 60 percent of FIs evaluated that the current human resources just meet their requirement, and the rest of FIs evaluated that they are in shortage of employment and need more employment in the following quarter. With pessimistic prospects of economic recovery and banking sector, most FIs said that they will improve their employment in 2014 to catch new opportunity.
T.H
Vietnamese
