Experts Propose Economic Growth Scenarios
The National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) has recently introduced three economic growth scenarios for the country in the next five years.
In the key scenario, an average GDP growth rate per capita would be 6.67 percent per year and an inflation rate under 5 percent per year in 2016-2020.
With more optimistic outlook, the domestic economy would grow 7.04 percent per year following robust developments and fewer risks in which public debts and non-performing loans are absolutely resolved.
On the contrary, if the economy continues to develop in the former modal with increasing risks on financial system and public debts, negative impacts of the global economy, Viet Nam would expand at around 6 percent and inflation would rebound at 7 percent.
In response to the three scenarios, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet from the Ha Noi National University emphasized that it is necessary to raise added value during the transformation of economy to avoid the worst scenario.
Mr. Viet also mentioned Viet Nam’s three largest challenges including shifting from high economic growth to sustainable one; altering beneficiaries and investment preference in which industries will no longer get bonus.
Economists were upbeat about economic recovery in the 2016-2020 period thanks to a series of supportive factors such as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), effective FTAs, good performance of FDI enterprises as well as institutional reforms.
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