Exports Likely to Grow 10-12 Pct

11:09:06 AM | 10/24/2018

In early October, the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade estimated Vietnam’s export value to grow 10 - 12 per cent to US$239 billion in 2018.

Highest growth in five years
The export value reached US$178.91 billion in the first nine months of this year, up 15.4 per cent year on year. The trade surplus was over US$5 billion in the reviewed period. In addition to traditional markets, Vietnamese exporters have searched and developed more new markets. The agricultural sector generated nearly US$30 billion, with 27 items exceeding US$1 billion each. Domestic sector growth outpaced the FDI sector.

According to analysts, the economy has grown positive. The economic structure has gradually shifted to Vietnam’s strengths to increase high economic value. Breakthroughs of the domestic business sector have shown that free trade agreements (FTAs) and the Government’s efforts to reduce business conditions have started to work. However, according to experts, Vietnam’s exports will continue to face many difficulties and challenges from now until the end of the year. Remarkably, countries have strengthened protectionist measures, food safety standards and more.

Data released by the General Department of Vietnam Customs were quite optimistic in the last five years (from 2014 to April 15, 2018), with three years growing at a double-digit pace: 16.1 per cent in 2014 and 13.9 per cent in 2017. Remarkably, exports reached US$64.41 billion in the first half of April 2018, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8 per cent (or US$11.98 billion), the highest in five years.

The gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.88 per cent in the third quarter and 6.98 per cent in the first nine months ending September 30. Specifically, the agriculture, forestry and fishery expanded by 3.46 per cent; the industrial and construction sector climbed 8.61 per cent and the service sector enlarged 6.87 per cent. Third-quarter growth was lower than the same period of 2017 but was the highest in 2011-2018.

In early October, the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade estimated Vietnam’s export value to grow 10 - 12 per cent to US$239 billion in 2018, driven by positive domestic and foreign economic performances.

Vietnam’s rice export at 3-year high
Driven by relatively good growth this year, Vietnam's rice exports have reached the highest level in the past three years. Notably, the export volume was slightly higher, but the value jumped almost 25 per cent. Vietnam’s exported rice has entered the fastidious markets and gradually overcome the rivals like Thailand and Australia.

According to the Vietnam Food Association, as of September 11, rice export shipments totalled 4.886 million tonnes, higher than the same period from 2015 to 2017, and even in the whole year of 2016.

However, rice export forecasts will face some difficulties in the remaining months of the year as glutinous rice was imposed 50 per cent by China and rivalled in price in Thailand and India, because Thai baht and Indian rupee are weakening against the US dollar.

Nguyen Thanh

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