Rising Real Estate Prices Amidst Gold Market Fluctuations

According to a recent market report released by Dat Xanh Services, some upmarket and luxury projects will be officially opened for sale in the coming time while new supplies from affordable and mid-end projects are becoming tight. Thus, real estate prices will continue to escalate.

After the domestic gold price peaked at VND92.4 million a tael on May 10, it suddenly plummeted in a week after authorities took fundamental measures to stabilize the bullion market.

Before these developments, Dr. Le Xuan Nghia said that the medium-term downward trend of gold prices is very clear. Therefore, investors and speculators on the financial market need to review their portfolios with the outlook of economic recovery, warming stock market, reviving real estate market. Gold will lose its value.

In contrast with gold performance, the residential property market remained stable and prices went up in all segments, according to the latest market report released by Dat Xanh Services.

Apartment prices in Hanoi, Hung Yen, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang and Quang Ninh were stable for many months, traded at VND26-70 million per square meter. Meanwhile, prices in the central region ranged from VND29 million to VND104 million per square meter (the highest increase was 4-6%); prices in Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces were traded at VND29-82 million per square meter (up 1-2%) and prices in the southwest were quoted at VND31-45 million per square meter (up 3-5%).

Residential land prices in Hanoi and neighboring provinces were traded at VND17-60 million per square meter; in Ho Chi Minh City and its suburbs at VND15-55 million; in the southwest at VND11-34 million, little changed from the previous month. Meanwhile, residential land prices in the central region (including Da Nang, Khanh Hoa, Binh Dinh, Quang Nam, Phu Yen and Quang Binh) rose by 3-5%, traded at VND14-54 million per square meter.

In the townhouse segment, selling prices in Hanoi and surrounding areas rose 3-4% to VND40 - 176 million per square meter. Prices in Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces such as Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An and Ba Ria - Vung Tau looked up 3-5% to VND31-103 million. Central and southwest regions saw unchanged prices from April, traded at VND40-140 million and VND22-45 million, respectively.

Villa prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City were traded at VND29-231 million per square meter (up 5-7%) and VND63-329 million (up 3 - 5%), respectively. Villas in central provinces ranged from VND45 million to VND200 million per square meter.

As for shophouses, only Hanoi and surrounding areas saw rising prices compared to April (up 3 - 4%), ranging VND38-242 million per square meter. Prices did not change much in other regions, ranging VND45-210 million in the central region, VND25-41 million in the southwest, and VND30-350 million in Ho Chi Minh City and the suburbs.

According to the report, in May, total primary supplies dipped slightly by 0.73% from April to reach 47,458 units. New supplies also contracted to only 38.5% of April new supplies, mostly from midmarket and upmarket apartment segments.

Thus, new projects launched for sale in the past month mainly came from the mid-range segment and above, helping boost the average selling price in major markets such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, and Can Tho.

In June, the supply is expected to pick up with a wider range of products. Some high-end and luxury projects will be officially opened for sale. New supplies from affordable and mid-range projects are limited and no social housing projects are available for sale. Therefore, this will drive up prices further.

Beside Dat Xanh Services, many other forecasts also indicated that real estate prices are likely to skyrocket after 2025 after three new laws in connection with real estate take effect.

Mr. Le Bao Long, Strategy Director at Batdongsan.com.vn, said: Land plots will be most affected by these laws because of regulations on prohibited subdivision and sale of land plots in 105 cities and towns.

Apartment prices will also change. Specifically, primary prices will go up when laws impose stricter requirements on business conditions, capital ratio and resettlement arrangements to investors. This will lead to an increase in project construction costs, meaning pre-sale prices will look up. If primary property prices rise, secondary house prices in surrounding areas will advance as well, he said.

Mr. Vo Hong Thang, Director of Consulting Services & Project Development, DKRA Group: “Based on historical data, land frenzy may return in 2025-2026. The beginning of the next recovery and growth cycle of the real estate market is expected to start from now to mid-2024.

Binh Minh (Vietnam Business Forum)