Resolute to Achieve Economic Growth Targets

2025 holds exceptional significance for Vietnam as a year of acceleration, breakthrough and completion. As the final year of the 5-year Socioeconomic Development Plan 2021-2025, the country is dedicated to executing the organizational streamlining reforms, hosting Party congresses at all levels in preparation for the 14th National Party Congress, and consolidating the foundations for Vietnam to confidently enter a new era - the era of advancing toward a wealthy and prosperous country and achieving all targets of the 10-year Socioeconomic Development Strategy 2021-2030.

Vietnam's total import-export turnover in 2025 is expected to grow by at least 12%, with a projected trade surplus of approximately US$30 billion

In the face of complex and unpredictable global and regional developments, slow, uneven and unsteady global economic recovery, and lingering rising risks, Vietnam's economy is forecast to sustain positive growth momentum, buoyed by a mix of opportunities and advantages. However, it will still face challenges, particularly from unfavorable external factors, longstanding internal shortcomings, and natural hazards such as storms, floods, droughts and saltwater intrusion.

In that context, achieving the economic growth target of 8% or higher to lay a solid foundation for double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period is not simple. This will require the concerted efforts of all levels, sectors, localities and the business community.

Favorable but non-groundbreaking start

According to Viet Dragon Securities Corporation - VDSC, in 2025, Vietnam's economy started off relatively favorably but has yet to make a major breakthrough. Despite being affected by seasonal factors, manufacturing still maintained growth momentum, driven by optimistic exports. Meanwhile, consumption continued to pick up slightly even though Tet, the largest and most important public holiday in Vietnam, is typically the highest spending season of the year. Retail revenue of consumer goods and services failed to rebound to the pre-COVID-19 level and grew much less than the government-backed growth target of 12% in 2025, although more positive signs emerged compared to last year. Retail growth was estimated at 9.5% year on year and 6.6% net of price factors in the first month of 2025. Domestic and international tourist arrivals grew 19% and 37% year on year, respectively.

The January consumer price index (CPI) climbed 0.98% from the previous month, matching the average growth observed during Tet holidays in 2017-2024.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) inched up just 0.6% year on year, an improvement compared to the Tet period falling in January 2020 and 2023. According to VDSC, although industrial production remained in contraction territory, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was less positive, dropping to 48.9 points in January from 49.8 in December 2024. However, the sharp drop in finished product inventories amid a slight decline in new orders might lead to expectations that businesses would return to more active production in the coming months.

Looking into economic sectors, business confidence showed signs of improvement in the foreign business sector while the domestic sector did not experience any significant recovery. According to statistics, in January 2025, the number of companies ceasing operations reached a record high of 58,300 (up 8.2% year-on-year) while the figures for new corporate entities, capital investments and job creation each fell by approximately 21% compared to the previous year.

According to a survey conducted by the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam - EuroCham, business confidence improved in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding the average level of the 2022-2024 period and reaching its highest point since the third quarter of 2022. Business confidence in future output, according to a survey by S&P Global, also rose from 61.5 points in December 2024 to 64.7 points in January 2025.

Foreign investment in January 2025 soared 48.6% year on year to US$4.3 billion. The processing and manufacturing sector alone drew US$3.1 billion, nearly doubling year-on-year. Outstanding projects included Samsung Display (adding US$1.2 billion) and SMC Manufacturing (adding US$330 million).

In the currency market, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) injected liquidity into the market over the past month to support liquidity amid the peak demand for VND during Tet. In the meantime, the positive credit growth in early 2025 could also put pressure on the liquidity of the credit system and push up interest rates in the interbank market.

Industrial development continues to be strengthened 

Efforts to achieve highest socioeconomic development goals

The Government issued Resolution 25/NQ-CP, demonstrating its determination in many aspects to accomplish the economic growth target of 8% or more, with a clear central focus on investment, particularly public investment, which is set to expand by 28% from 2024, or by VND84.3 trillion more than the previous plan. In addition, the Government expected higher growth in the production and consumption sectors than in 2024. At the same time, the credit target will be also elevated alongside easing the inflation target.

To achieve the highest socioeconomic development goals and objectives in 2025 and the 2021-2025 term, especially the growth target of 8% or more in 2025, the Government will aggressively implement key measures, prioritizing growth stimulation while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, preserving major economic balances and securing a robust surplus, all aimed at successfully achieving the 2025 Socioeconomic Development Plan.

The Government will continue to implement policies to strengthen traditional growth drivers (investment, consumption, and exports) as well as new growth drivers (the digital economy, green economy, circular economy, creative economy, knowledge economy and sharing economy). It will also closely monitor production and business activities across different industries and regions, particularly in major economic hubs that serve as growth engines.

The Government will urgently restructure and streamline its apparatus, enhance the performance and efficiency of state administrative agencies as per Resolution 18-NQ/TW, further review and refine institutions, mechanisms and policies, and improve law enforcement efficiency by simplifying administrative procedures and promptly addressing legal obstacles for businesses and individuals.

Moreover, the Government will accelerate public investment disbursement and implement three National Target Programs; focus investment on modernizing strategic infrastructure, especially in projects with national, regional and international connectivity. The Government aims to disburse at least 95% of planned public investment in 2025 as assigned by the Prime Minister. It will also promote scientific and technological innovation and ensure the timely completion of key national transport projects.

In 2025, Vietnam is determined to open the entire expressway from Cao Bang to Ca Mau, basically complete Long Thanh International Airport and Lach Huyen ports, inaugurate and operate Terminal 3 of Tan Son Nhat Airport on April 30, 2025, start construction of Lien Chieu Port, and speed up investment procedures for strategic and important national transport infrastructure projects.

Last but not least, Vietnam will boost industrial and agricultural production, strengthen national energy and food security, expand domestic and export markets, and accelerate economic restructuring alongside transitioning to new growth models. The country will also strongly promote science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, the digital economy, digital society and digital citizenship.

By Anh Mai, Vietnam Business Forum