The second meeting of the 13th National Assembly, which takes place from October 20 to November 26, 2011, discussed many important issues. The legislative body of Vietnam ratified the Resolution on Socioeconomic Development Plan for 2011-2015, with underscored focus on rapid and sustainable development in association with a new growth model in the next four years. Inflation - the most attention-catching issue in the countries in the past years - is expected to be brought down to 5 - 7 percent in 2015.
Spiralling inflation has affected the vast majority of Vietnamese people. Next year, the National Assembly defined that the top objectives of monetary policies are to stabilise the value of Vietnamese dong, tighten control to ensure the rationality of liquidity and credit growth with economic growth and consumer price growth.
In 2012, Vietnam expects the GDP growth at 6 - 6.5 percent and the export growth at 13 percent. Trade deficit is forecast to be kept at 11 - 12 percent of exports, or even below 10 percent of exports in case of better conditions. Budgetary overspending will be kept under 4.8 percent of GDP. Consumer price index (CPI) will be kept below 10 percent.
The year 2012 is forecast to be a tough time as global economies will be shaken up by public debt crisis and many big economies - major importers of Vietnam - will be unlikely to get through the crisis. Hence, the overall objectives of the plan are to curb inflation, stabilize macro economy and maintain the growth rate at a reasonable level; ensure social welfare and security, while improving the people's living conditions; etc.
As regards economic development in the 2011 - 2015 period, the lawmakers basically agreed on the proposed annual GDP growth of 6.5 to 7 percent in the five-year period, lower than its target of 7 - 7.5 percent approved by the National Party Congress. CPI is expected to climb 5 - 7 percent in 2015 while trade deficit will fall to below 10 percent of exports at that time.
State budget deficit is targeted to be less than 4.5 percent of GDP at the last year of the current government term. Public debt to GDP will be not more than 65 percent.
To sustain growth and improve growth quality, the National Assembly asked the Government to reduce energy consumption (to GDP) by about 2.5 to 3 percent a year while social labour productivity in 2015 will be 29 - 32 percent higher than in 2010. High-tech products will account for 30 percent of total industrial output.
Another underlying topic of discussion is the economic restructuring, with three major contents: public investment, banking and State-owned enterprises. The Government was assigned to complete the overall scheme for economic restructuring coupled with growth remodelling to enhance quality, efficiency and effectiveness of the economy.
Minh Chau
Vietnamese
