How Much to Build High-speed Railway?

 

According to JICA studies on high-speed railways on Hanoi - Vinh and Ho Chi Minh City - Nha Trang sections, the capacity and speed of trains on existing railroads are limited because of many bottlenecks. Moreover, degenerated railway infrastructure insufficient crossing safety measures make trains operate less efficiently and face traffic safety risks. Train speed is reduced in many sections like Hoa Duyet - Thanh Luyen, Khe Net Pass and Hai Van Pass.

 

JICA experts forecast the demand for railway transport on the north-south run will surge and exceed the capacity of the current system. By 2030, train frequency will exceed 50 trips a day on both directions. This is also the maximum capacity of the current route. Moreover, with the current track widths, it is hard to raise the train speed to 120 km an hour on priority sections.

 

In north-south railway development scenarios introduced by JICA, Hanoi - Vinh and Nha Trang - Ho Chi Minh City sections are overloaded. Its studies recommended four development schemes for the north - south route. Option A1 is to ensure the moving train safety. With single-track rail with a width of 1 metre, passenger trains run at 90 km an hour while freight trains move at 60 km an hour. The time for completing a railway trip from Ho Chi Minh City to Hanoi is 29.1 hours.

 

Option A2 is to promote the transport capacity on the single-track rail of 1 metre width. The maximum speeds for passenger trains and freight trains are 90 km and 60 km an hour. The travelling time from Ho Chi Minh City to Hanoi will be shortened to 25.4 hours.

 

Option B1 is to enhance transport capacity by using double-track rails and increasing train speeds to 120 km an hour. The maximum speeds for passenger trains and freight trains are 120 km and 70 km an hour respectively. The time for travelling from Hanoi to HCM City will be 15.6 hours.

 

Option B2 is to build double-track railways to increase maximum train speed to 150 km an hour.

 

According to JICA, the investment capital for these options will range from US$1.8 billion to US$27.7 billion. Option A2 is preferred for upgrading the north- south route but the Option B1 is chosen for high-demand sections. Total investment capital will reach dozens of billions of US dollars.

 

This huge amount of capital needs good management. According to JICA, we can establish high-speed railway corporation (which will be privatised later) responsible for operating and maintaining locomotives and carriages. Vietnamese State-owned banks and local and Japanese private investors will lend capital. The State will assume infrastructure construction capital. And, to attract private investors, we need measures to limit risks of inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, site clearance and demand overestimation.

 

Nguyen Van Doanh, Deputy Director of Vietnam Railway Department, said: JICA’s studies contain some irrational points. He cited that they suggested current speed of 90 km an hour. But, in reality, only two sections can reach this speed while the rest is lower. With current capacity and future development, Option A2 and Option B1 chosen are suitable. But, the amount of money needed to clear seven bottlenecks may exceed US$1.8 billion.

 

Tran Quoc Dong, Deputy General Director of Vietnam Railways Corporation, said the transport demand on Ho Chi Minh City - Nha Trang route is in fact much higher than that in JICA’s studies. Besides, route directions have not been discussed with localities while this move may affect their overall development planning. “Currently, many localities have planned for high-speed railways. The Japanese side will continue to work with localities with railway running past to supplement its studies,” he said.