Vietnam will be a world manufacturing base in the near future, said Dr Patrick Dixon, Chairman of the trends forecasting company Global Change Ltd, at the international conference on “Vietnam macroeconomic policy forecast & CEOs’ strategic thinking in the context of 2013-2015 (Vietnam Leadership Summit 2012- VNLS2012) recently held in Hanoi .
Dr Nguyen Hong Son, HBA President, said, the workshop aimed to help policymakers and business leaders to identify trends, opportunities and risks of global economies in general and the Vietnamese economy in particular, thus grasping advantages and creating sustainable development strategies, facing and overcoming the global economic uncertainty. Notably, the event was also a bridge for enterprises to send recommendations on the State's macroeconomic policies for the 2013-2015 period.
Dr Patrick Dixon said, despite being faced with the worst global economic crisis in many years, Vietnam continues to have great potential for development. In this context, Vietnam’s advantages are a population of 90 million people with the median age of only 27 - a young population with a literacy rate of 94 per cent. Up to 80 per cent of Vietnamese people graduate from secondary schools. Labour costs are only half those of China and Thailand. In more than two decades, Vietnam’s economic growth is 7 per cent - only behind China with a growth of 9.9 per cent.
"Looking back on the past 25 years, with foreign direct investment of US$200 billion and 14,000 industrial investment projects, with the notable presence of Canon, Samsung, and especially Intel with a US$1 billion plant, Vietnam will become a world manufacturing base in the near future,” said Dr Patrick Dixon.
He said the most important matter is how and what leaders will do to capture global trends, foresee advantages of international economic integration, and have the capacity to significantly attract industrial projects in China, Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia. And, what will Vietnam do to promote the development of domestic sectors like banking, real estate or health care? What is the prerequisite for Vietnam to export not only goods but also services and software effectively?
Dr Pham Viet Muon, Vice Chairman of the Government Office, said that Vietnam’s targets towards 2015 are to control inflation at 6 per cent. Then, interest rates can return to 8 per cent as in the previous period. As inflation declines, bad debts are solved, and banking system is stable so the difference between deposit and lending interest rates will likely narrow. He said if the consumer price index (CPI) is kept stable in December, it may close the year at a 7.5 per cent growth.
However, Dr Nguyen Duc Kien, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly’s Commission on Economic Affairs, said the Vietnamese economy has faced burning problems in 2012, that is, high inventory, increased bad debts at banks, and difficult access to capital sources. Besides, he noted that though exports exceed the plan, the growth is mainly driven by industrial products made by foreign-invested enterprises, while domestic enterprises are seeing declines. In particular, growth remodelling, economic restructuring projects are slowly deployed. A lot of social issues are worrying, including rising unemployment and rising prices of essential commodities.
He said Vietnam should focus on handling bad debts in the midst of restructuring joint stock commercial banks and allocate State budget for basic construction investment. In addition, the country needs a balanced budget.
Quynh Anh
Vietnamese
