“Vietnam economy is expected to thrive and reach a growth of 5.5 percent in the last 6 months of 2013”. This is an assessment of Economic and Social Survey of the Asia and the Pacific - the most important report of ESCAP. It also appeals to countries in the regions to change macroeconomic policy models to ensure sustainable and social development.
Economic and social survey of Asia and the Pacific 2013 with title: “Forward – looking macroeconomic policies for inclusive and sustainable development” assessed that the region will experience weak growth after last year’s decrease due to external factors. According to it, demand stimulation must accompany changes of macroeconomic direction to promote sustainable development processes and serve a wide range of beneficiaries.
Also referring to the survey, expectations of increasing world demand thanks to continuous development of the United States and merging large economies will contribute to rising growth rate of developing countries in the Asia Pacific, from 5.6 percent last year to 6.0 percent in 2013.
China estimates a modest growth rate, from 7.8 percent in 2012 to 8 percent, when India is forecast to recover its growth from 5 percent last year to 6.4 percent in 2013. North and Middle Asia, the export regions of oil and gas, will continue taking advantage of high world energy prices, and therefore they will maintain continuous growth. In the South and West Asia, economies such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Butan and Sri Lanka were forecast to growth 6 percent or even higher in 2013.
Economies that are based mainly on export in East Asia, North Asia and Southeast Asia will benefit from “improved global trade despite activeness”. Domestic demand will become the main force of Indonesia’s economy, helping the country reach 6.6 percent in 2013. High consumption will contribute to growth of the Philippines (6.2 percent in 2013 and Thailand (5.3 percent in 2013), while the Vietnam economy is expected to thrive and reach a growth rate of 5.5 percent in the last 6 months of 2013.
The report also warns that “if the economy continues the present trend, rapid decreasing growth compared to recent years will become a common situation in many economies in the region”, and this may lead to economic damages of US$1.3 billion by the end of 2017.
Long term structural problems like increasing inequality, energy shortage and poor infrastructure make the economic slowdown worse and the report states that the “structural solution to enhance domestic growth motives is to stabilise and harmonise the development process”.
Mr Heyzer, Executive Secretary of ESCAP said that “In the context of high level of unsecured economy, some huge gaps in development and infrastructure still exist, the environment becomes fragile and more vulnerable with serious exposure to climate change, a better balance must be found between stabilising and developing the role of macroeconomic policies”.
Quynh Anh
Vietnamese
