World consumption demand declined, prices of high export ratio commodities decreased significantly, and a series of trade barriers were erected putting huge pressure on Vietnam’s export. Against all these odds, the sector has consistently continued its steady growth, keeping its goal within reach.
FDI sector - the forerunner
In the first nine months of 2013, export is estimated to have achieved 76.6 percent of the year's target (US$126.1 billion). FDI businesses have continued their leading position in creating export value, expanding its proportion in the country’s export. Particularly, in the first nine months of 2013, exports from this sector (crude oil excluded) accounted for 60.5 percent of the country's total, an increase from 55.2 percent of the last year. Some commodities of the FDI sector, such as textiles, shoes, computers, electronic products and components, mobile phones and components have accounted for up to 43.7 percent of Vietnam’s export. Counting in absolute value, if exports in the first nine months of 2013 increased US$13.08 billion compared to last year’s same period, this group of above mentioned products accounts for nearly US$11.8 billion.
In the context of export of agricultural products, fisheries and fossil fuels all declining, processed commodities play an important role in export growth. In the first nine months, this group’s export increased 26.4 percent, accounting for 69.7 percent of total value.
As for markets, three quarters of 2013 has seen an unequal growth among markets, Europe has the highest growth rate estimated at 21.9 percent increase, followed by America with a 13.4 percent increase, the US is 10.6 percent, the Latin American and Caribbean market also achieved positive growth (+32.1 percent). Asian market ranked third with a 12.9 percent increase compared with the same period last year, in which Western Asia and Central Asia enjoyed high growth of 42.6 percent and 65.7 percent, respectively, while Southeast Asia increased 12.9 percent.
Overall, the picture of Vietnam’s trade in the first nine months of 2013 shows higher growth rates in export than import. The target of increasing export by 10 percent requires the sector to reach US$126.1 billion by the end of the year. However, considering the first nine months has completed US$96.46 billion, and that export sector growth usually speeds up during the last months, it’s believed that if there are no unexpected factors, 2013’s export could arrive at US$131 billion, an increase of 14 percent compared to 2012 and 4 percent higher than the target set by the National Assembly. Meanwhile, import would be around US$131.5 billion, up 15.6 percent compared with 2012.
Still difficult
Compared to 2012, the dropping of export prices in nine months of 2013 has caused a decrease by US$433 million for agricultural products and US$549 million for the mineral and fuels. In all, both groups have suffered an export decrease worth US$982 million. If taking into account the whole increase and decrease in price and quantity, agricultural products and minerals has cost the country more than US$2.8 billion of export.
Some key commodities such as textiles, leather and footwear, and wood products have large -scale export, but their growth rate was still lower than the average of the country’s export. This fact presents the difficulty in seeking export markets, especially to small and medium enterprises, so it’s crucial to prepare support measures to boost export in the coming final months of the year.
As for agricultural and aquatic products, the export price and quantity continued to decline compared with same period last year, showing that exporters of this commodity group has not yet overcome difficulties such as reduced market demand, decreased world price due to oversupply, and lack of sources due to end of seasons.
Trade deficit for the first nine months was estimated at US$124 million, equal 0.13 percent of export earnings. Except for the FDI sector (crude oil excluded) which produced trade surplus of US$3.95 billion, all domestic enterprises faced deficit of nearly US$9.5 billion. Vietnam’s trade deficit was mainly to Asia.
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