“The economy is showing strong recovery,” said the National Financial Supervisory Commission in its regular macroeconomic report published on May 5. It comes from the facts that aggregate demand is getting positive, while industry and construction are going through a strong recovery. The positive changes in aggregate demand are reflected on both aspects of investment and consumption.
Specifically, total development investment rose 9.1 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2015, much higher than that of the same period of 2014 (3.8 percent). In particular, investment from the private sector increased significantly, with 2.78 percent credit growth as of April 20 (same period in 2014 increased by only 0.53 percent). Meanwhile, consumption is also actively improving; total retail sales of goods and services in the first 4 months, excluding price growth, rose nearly 8 percent year-on-year, much higher than the figures of the previous three years ago (same period of 2012, 2013, and 2014 grew by 6.1 percent, 4.6 percent, and 5.5 percent respectively).
According to the National Financial Supervisory Commission, economic momentum continued its significant recovery trend in the context of macro-economic balance being maintained, providing foundation for the economy to enter the stage of “rapid and sustainable growth” in the upcoming time, meaning a rapid growth on the basis of macroeconomic stability. However, the commission also pointed out some challenges for consideration. That was the slowdown of the service and agriculture sectors. Specifically, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew only 2.14 percent in the first quarter of 2015, lower than the 2.37 percent of last year. Meanwhile, export growth was showing signs of slowing down.
Generally, in the first four months of 2015, total export value was estimated at US$50.1 billion, up 8.2 percent only year-on-year, significantly lower than the 16.9 percent of the first four months of 2014. Meanwhile, import value this year was estimated at US$53.1 billion, bringing the trade deficit over the four months to nearly US$3 billion, or 6 percent of total exports - higher than the target of 5 percent set by the National Assembly.
Concerning inflation, the commission said inflation in the first 4 months of this year continued to remain low. The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 0.14 percent compared to the previous month and up 0.99 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, core inflation also remained stable around 2 - 4 percent within this one year. Forecasting inflation in the near future, the National Financial Supervisory Commission believed CPI in May would rise only 0.17 percent month-on-month and 0.96 percent year-on-year.
Ham Yen
Vietnamese
