4:22:08 PM | 10/31/2025
In its latest macroeconomic update about Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank has raised Vietnam’s 2025 growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.5% (6.1% prior) and 7.2% (6.2% prior) for 2026. The bank also revises its inflation forecasts slightly to 3.4% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth momentum and easing price pressures.
Standard Chartered Branch Office In Hannoi
Vietnam continues to strengthen its role in the global supply chain, supported by robust trade performance and deeper integration into global trade through multiple free trade agreements (FTAs). Total export value reached USD 42.7 billion in September 2025, up 24.7% y/y, driven by strong growth in key sectors such as electronics and computers (+66.2%), telephones (+17.5%), and machinery (+11.6%). Imports also rose by 24.9% to USD 39.8 billion, led by electronics and computer supplies (+43.6%) and machinery (+33.6%), signalling continued expansion in production and industrial capacity.
Vietnam’s external position remains resilient, supported by robust trade and a resilient FX outlook. After being depleted amid USD strength prior to this year, FX reserves are likely to be rebuilt, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and a healthy trade performance.
Domestic credit growth has also accelerated, signalling continued economic recovery even without policy rate cuts. Credit growth is now above 15% y/y, reflecting improving business confidence and rising finance demand. Lending growth remains robust, supported by favourable liquidity conditions and government measures to stimulate growth.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to be a key growth driver. Disbursed FDI rose 8.5% y/y (USD 18.8 billion) in the first nine months of 2025, while pledged FDI rose 15.2% y/y (USD 28.5 billion). Standard Chartered economists expect the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5% for the rest of 2025 and 2026, with accommodative conditions supporting investment and expansion.
Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank, says "Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are evidenced by its successful attraction of strong FDI and robust export growth, solidifying its strategic role in global supply chain diversification and pointing to strong prospects for continued economic expansion.”
The Bank remains its USD-VND forecast at 26,300 for 2025 and 26,750 for 2026.
Source: Vietnam Business Forum
Vietnamese
