Vietnam's Six-month Economy: Healthy Development

2:07:19 PM | 7/4/2006

CPI increases 4 per cent as planned The consumption price index (CPI) in June was up 0.4 per cent on the previous year but down 0.2 per cent on the same month, totalling a rise of 4 per cent in the first six months of this year, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).
Generally, the CPI increased in all commodities groups in June. Travelling groups were seriously affected by the recent retail price rise in petroleum products. However, the rise in this group is compensated by the fall in the telecommunication group.
In six months, mobile phone and long-distance phone network operators have cut calling fees. The telecom group enjoyed a fall of 2.8 per cent in the month, a sharp decrease compared with price movements in the past two years.
Gold and USD are not used to count the CPI but its up-and-down parameters in the month also reflected the price movements. The sixth month witnessed a 5.6 per cent drop in gold price compared with the previous month, the sharpest on-month fall since the beginning of this year. This was a rational decrease after a case of gold fever. In fact, the gold price fell from 15 million a tael to 12 million.
June also saw a 0.3 per cent decrease in the USD price, which has not been seen for at least two years. Like the gold price, the USD price soared in the previous month. The USD price fall was also part of attempts made by the State Bank and was within estimation.
Hence, after half a year, the CPI increased 4 per cent, equally half of the annual CPI growth rate target of at most 8 per cent.
Export grows nearly 26 Per Cent
Vietnam obtained more than US$18.7 billion from exports in the first six months of 2006, representing an increase of 25.7 per cent on year, according to the statistics from the Ministry of Trade.
Thus, each month, Vietnam earned an average of over US$3 billion from export activities. This showed a more stable development compared with last year when US$3 billion a month revenue was unstable. For example, Vietnam bagged over US$3 billion from export this month but the revenue fell to a lower level in the following month. The average monthly takings were over US$2.8 billion.
The Ministry of Trade calculated Vietnam has to generate US$3.2 billion from export a month to fulfill this year’s target. Based on the earning size and growth rate, the export revenue target is within reach, the Ministry of Trade believes.
According to the statistics, the fastest-growing exports in the six months were electric cables and wires with a revenue growth at 36.7 per cent, garment and textiles at 32.7 per cent, wood products at 26 per cent and aquatic products at 25.7 per cent. Other commodities like rubber and tea also made significant growths. The footwear export still rose 20.3 per cent on year instead of encountering anti-dumping restrictions.
Notably, coal and crude oil reported respective export earnings growth rates of 63.6 per cent and 21 per cent although export output fell nearly 18 per cent.
Between January and June, Vietnam spent US$20.7 billion on imports, up 14.1 per cent on year, resulting in a trade deficit of US$2 billion.
According to the Ministry of Trade, export activities in the remaining months of the year will face many difficulties like fluctuating global prices. In the domestic market, the supply of goods for export, industrial production and agricultural production may be at a loss. The material sources for production of various aquatic products may face hardships. In addition, the planned price rise in several commodities and services will lead to production cost increase in the coming time.