Vietnamese securities companies are pessimistic about the country’s stock market prospect this year, given that the global economic recession would sharply strike the local economy during the year.
Nguyen Duc Hung, deputy director of Analysis and Investment Consultancy Division of Saigon Securities Inc. (SSI) may have no stimulus to grow in 2009, noting that the economy will unlikely to grow at 6.5 per cent as targeted by the National Assembly. The public still question about the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus package to avert the recession.
Deputy Head of Analysis Division of Bao Viet Securities Co. (BVSC) Tong Minh Tuan said the stock market will witness the worst period between February and April of this year due to enterprises’ bad business results and banking system’s bad debts.
Some hardest-stricken industries such as technology, telecom, industry, property, consumer services, finance and banking will expose their performance in the first quarter.
The VN-Index may fluctuate 300-400 points during this period, and the market’s P/E ratio will be at 7-10 times, Tuan said.
The market may see slight bullish trend during the end of the second quarter and early third quarter, with VN-Index at 400-500 points and P/E ratio at 10-13 times, he noted.
As the macro-economy is able to recover in the second half of this year thanks to the central bank’s loosened monetary policies, the stock market will also recover in the third and fourth quarters with the benchmark at 500-600 points, Tuan said.
Hoang Xuan Quyen, director of Analysis Division of Tan Viet Securities Co. (TVSI), also did not expect a recovery until the end of this year.
The local stock market witnessed a two-year record low last year, with a fall of up to nearly 70 per cent in the market value. The VN-Index today closed down at 307.13. (Vneconomy)
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