“The Vietnamese economy has seen initial positive signals,” said Minister and Chairman of Government Office, Nguyen Xuan Phuc on a monthly press briefing on March 3, 2009.
Good progresses
Good points of the economy include “good payment balance, stable base interest rate, stimulus package worth nearly VND100 trillion (nearly US$6 billion) taking effect, and public consent.”
The agricultural production output surged because the winter-summer crop is bumper. Therefore, rice more than doubled in both volume and value. Pepper and cashew nuts are promising key exports of Vietnam.
Trade surplus of US$290 million in the first two months of 2009, equalling 3.6 per cent of export turnover, is a completely new phenomenon because this is the first time in 17 years Vietnam enjoys a trade surplus, a feat in global economic downturn.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment informed that industrial production in February reached VND58.2 trillion, totalling VND106.1 trillion in the first two months, up 2.5 per cent year on year. Despite difficulties, the agricultural field is still stable.
Over the past two years, Vietnam licensed 67 new investment certificates worth US$5.3 billion, equalling 35 per cent of projects and 31 per cent of registered capital in the same period in 2008. This showed that foreign investors are still keen on long-term development of Vietnam, despite gloomy world economy.
At its documentary request of the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development will submit a project to build a storage system with a capacity of 4 million tonnes, mainly located in Mekong Delta region, to ensure export reserve. The total investment capital is estimated at VND7,000 billion plus to upgrade and repair the old storage system and build new warehouses in Long An, Dong Thap, An Giang, Can Tho and Ho Chi Minh City where the traffic systems are favourable. The warehouse construction is expected to be built and completed from 2009 to 2011
Declining signals
Tourism and import-export are on the negative notes in the first two months of this year. The number of international visitor arrivals tended to fall sharply this year. In February, Vietnam welcomed only 343,600 arrivals, down 0.7 per cent year on year, totalling only 689,400 visitors in the first two months, down 10.2 per cent over the same period of last year. Together with the fall in volume, the number of high-spending visitors to Vietnam also slumped, from China (down 27.5 per cent), Thailand (down 24.7 per cent), South Korea (down 22.3 per cent), Japan (down 27.5 per cent) and Malaysia (down 8.2 per cent).
The February export revenue fell to US$4.3 billion, totalling US$8 billion in the January-February period, down 5.1 per cent over the same period of last year. Most exports experienced a downturn like rubber (down 50.5 per cent), electric cables and wires (44.6 per cent), crude oil (down 42.4 per cent) and woodwork (down 26.3 per cent).
In addition, the import earnings also slumped. Between January and February, Vietnam’s import turnover dropped 43.1 per cent year on year to US$7.73 billion. Import orders from major trade partners like China, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan decreased by 40 per cent more or less.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Nguyen Thanh Bien, said there was nothing to worry about the nosedive in import-export as well as long-to-see trade surplus. He analysed that the fall of 5 per cent in export turnover is not normal amidst global economic recession because Japan and China experienced a plunge of 45 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.
The State Budget collection slid more than 28 per cent from a year an earlier to VND24 trillion over the past two months.
In the context of the economic slump, information about social security, especially inflation, is a hot topic over the past time. Over the past two months, lay-offs tended to rise sharply.
According to reports from 38 provinces and cities, to date, nine handicraft villages went bankrupt, 124 villages fell into stagnation (accounting for 10 per cent of the total trade villages in Vietnam), and 468 trade village-related enterprises are operating for survival, accounting for 16 per cent of the nation’s total. At present, 2,166 households in handicraft villages with business licenses collapsed.
In addition, many workers returned their homeland because there were no employment opportunities in industrial zones and export processing zones.
Huong Ly
Vietnamese
