Vietnam Exports to See Negative Growth of 7.2 per cent-25.5 per cent This Yr: CIEM

Vietnam’s exports will post negative growth this year if gemstones and gold export is not included in the total export value, said the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) in its three scenarios for Vietnam’s economy in 2009 announced recently.

 

In the basic scenario, Vietnam’s economic growth falls to 4.69 per cent in 2009 from 6.18 per cent in 2008, the budget deficit and inflation are relatively high at 9.7 per cent of GDP and 9.4 per cent, respectively, export value to decrease by 12.2 per cent and the trade deficit to hit 8.7 per cent of GDP.

 

In the optimistic scenario, the world’s economic performance is not too pessimistic and Vietnam’s investment environment remains attractive to foreign investors. The crude oil price is supposed to be high at $60/barrel, and industrial material import prices and farm produce export prices decrease by 20 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively. The foreign direct investment (FDI) reduces by 15 per cent against 2008.

 

The country’s GDP and CPI growth stands at 5.56 per cent and 8.9 per cent, respectively, and export value falls by 7.2 per cent.

 

In the pessimistic scenario, the crude oil price stays low at $40/barrel, and FDI disbursement decreases sharply by 30 per cent against 2008. The VND loses 3 percentage points in value, while the total money supply (M2) increases by 15 per cent per annum in 2009.

 

Vietnam’s GDP will grow 3.39 per cent and CPI will be 8.2 per cent, while export value reduces by 25.5 per cent.

 

In late April, the Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to lower this year’s expected export growth to just 3 per cent from the previously targeted 13 per cent due to adverse impacts of the existing global financial crisis, according to a plan promoting exports and narrowing trade gap during the 2009-2010 period submitted to the Government recently. (Investment, vnexpress.net)