Vietnam Exports Forecast to Post Negative Growth This Year: NCEIF

Vietnam’s goods export value is forecast to experience negative growth of between 2.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent to US$61.3 billion and US$58.7 billion this year, respectively, said the National Center for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCEIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).

 

The estimation was based on the country’s export trend in recent years, its key export markets, and the outlook for the world economic recovery, said the NCEIF.

 

If this estimation is true, this will be the first year Vietnam will see negative export growth since it opened up its economy in 1986.

 

In recent years, Vietnam’s export value in the first half represented between 45 per cent and 47 per cent of its total export for the whole year, and the second half made up the rest. Based on this trend, the country is estimated to reap between US$61.3 billion and US$58.7 billion from goods shipments this year, said the center.

 

The NCEIF added that the country’s total export value could be equal to that of 2008 at US$62.7 billion if the world economy shows signs of recovery and stronger action from the Vietnamese government is taken to boost exports. This forecast is similar to the MPI’s recent estimation released at the government’s monthly meeting in July.

 

Vietnam saw an on-year export value decrease of 13.4 per cent to US$32.3 billion in the past seven months of this year; therefore it is hard for Vietnam to achieve 16 per cent export value growth in the second half to reach the zero export growth this year, said the center. (Investment)