Vietnam’s inflation being well beyond the „target“rate one month earlier has caused public overwhelming worries about social welfare.
According to statistics revealed by Vietnam General Statistics Office on November 24th, Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2010 sharply increased by 1.86 percent compared with October and was a bit lower than rate of 1.96 percent in February 2010 with Lunar Year Festival.
November of years since 1995 considered, it can be seen this month has the highest CPI over more than 15 years. Noticeably, this “record” has been remained for three months.
This month’s CPI increased 9.58 percent compared with December 2009 and 11.09 percent year on year. CPI in eleven months on average increased 8.96 percent year on year.
These figures point out the goal of curbing inflation at 8 percent has been left behind. Even it will be challenging to have one-digit inflation rate of the year, when the rest time is not so long.
Regarding the second and third quarter, it seemed that CPI maintaining low increase is just period of compressing, which is to fuel in the last months of third quarter. Method of keeping control with money policy which was revealed at the same time with inflation rate last month, hasn’t met management expectation.
For example, last month, it is said that high CPI in Hanoi is due to Festival of 1000 year anniversary Thang Long – Hanoi. However, effort to pull back the increase in November was not as expected, when this month’s CPI of Hanoi is even 0.7 percent higher than last month.
In term of the national index, though CPI being high at the end of the year is a rule, this year, the turning point seems to come soon. Despite, tuition being raised widely, Festival 1000 year anniversary Thang Long – Hanoi, recent temporary US dollar and gold’s fever, CPI increasing by one percent in three consecutive months is unusual.
Credit for loan of the economy until the end of October increased by 22.5 percent compared with the end of 2009, which is said to be rather high and possible to exceed the year’s target of 25 percent; total payment measures also rose by 21.29 percent (target of 20 percent), which can be regarded as primary influence on CPI.
It is not easy to indicate that how advancing primary construction projects, which is forecast to be sped up at the end of the year, increases money in transaction, but when price of gold and US dollar rose recently, number of people put money in these speculation channels, causing amount of money increase in consume good market.
Many people may not afford gold or US dollar for reserve, some can reduce expense on durable goods, being worried about inflation, but foods are integral. In the last three months, price of rice, meat and vegetable silently increase since buyers are willing to pay more.
The peak is in this month, price index of restaurant and meal service increased by 3.45 percent compared with last month, is the core to push November’s CPI to the above figure. As for specific goods, foods’ price index increased sharply by 6.02 percent, foodstuff’s increased by 3.27 percent; and outside meals’ increased by 11.9 percent.
Compare year on year, price index of foods, foodstuff, outside meals all increased by over 10 percent, which is worrying rate with the poor and people having low income.
In another happening, with the influence of increasing world’s price and changed exchange rate between VND and US dollar, selling prices of some goods such as steel, cement and gas, which are hard to consume, still have to increase. Price index of housing and building materials, for that reason, increased by 1.74 percent.
CPI in groups of clothing, hat, footwear increased 0.9 percent since this month is still between two seasons, demand for fashion products increased; group of beverage, cigarette increased by 0.94 percent partially due to import controlling policy; group of other goods and service increased by 0.99 percent due to influence of gold’s price increasing to jewelry’s price etc.
Price index of gold in November increased by 8.67 percent compared with last month, that of US dollar increased by 3 percent in the same comparison.
P.V
Vietnamese
