Vietnam’s 2013 Economic Growth Scenarios Unveiled

The National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCSIF) has constructed three scenarios for the Vietnamese economy in 2013, with the most likely scenario suggesting that the economy may grow at 5.68 percent.

 

Under this scenario, inflation will fall to 7.1 percent, exports rise by 14.6 percent and the trade deficit estimated at 6.5 percent of total export revenue.

 

According to Dr Do Van Thanh, NCSIF Deputy Director, the Government should continue its tightening policy and speed up economic reforms, particularly the restructuring of State-owned enterprises and public investment, if it wants to achieve its 5.68 percent growth target.

 

He added that measures are also needed to generate movement in the property market, tackle non-performing loans and reduce inventories, while at the same time the Government needs to provide enterprises with tax incentives to boost domestic production and consumption.

 

In the worst scenario, Vietnam’s economic growth may slow to 5 percent with inflation estimated at 7.3 percent and exports only rising by 12.8 percent while the most optimistic scenario shows economic growth will quicken to 6.34 percent with exports increasing by 16.3 percent and inflation down to only 8.2 percent.