Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement negotiations are progressing at a satisfactory pace. If negotiating countries give each other a flexible response, the conclusion of negotiations in 2015 is entirely feasible.
Likely to conclude in 2015
TPP negotiating countries have unsuccessfully set the year of conclusion of TPP talks since 2011 (2011 then 2012, 2013, 2013, H1 2014 and H2 2014). All TPP parties have now fixed the schedule for TPP conclusion and signing in 2015.
By the end of May 2015, TPP had completed 19 official rounds, four trade ministerial meetings and dozens of unofficial negotiations, technical negotiations and chief negotiator negotiations. Besides, lots of bilateral meetings and negotiations have also been held (e.g. the US and Japan debated on agriculture and automobile; the US and Vietnam talked about market opening, garment and textile, leather and footwear, labour and other issues) on issues of particular interests or issues out of common TPP negotiations. The latest negotiation meeting was the TPP Ministerial Meeting on May 26-28, 2015 in the Philippines, preceded by the Chief Negotiator Meeting in Guam. This is an important time to firm up core issues in negotiation strategies of each country to seek for the conclusion of TPP negotiations.
According to experts, there are many reasons for the likelihood of the conclusion of TPP in 2015. First of all, with for some important TPP partners, this is the best time to wrap up. Besides, after many attempts to settle disagreements in some contents, TPP-negotiating countries are narrowing their differences in many matters deemed the most intense in negotiations earlier. Hence, this is perhaps the last phase of TPP negotiations and this is the time to wrap up core issues in TPP negotiations.
As a major “guiding hand” in TPP talks, the Obama Administration also showed its resolve to sign FTAs it pursues, including TPP. The administration is trying to take Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) from the Congress, which allows the President to sign a trade agreement and the Congress will then vote for or against it, not change its contents. Besides, some other countries such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam are also rushing and flexibly approach differences in a bid to conclude this important agreement.
As a representative and contact of the Vietnamese business community, in late May 2015, the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) also compiled the "Recommendations of the Vietnamese business community to TPP negotiations in May 2015". The recommendations were sent to the TPP negotiations delegation of the Government and competent bodies concerned.
Opportunities for Vietnamese businesses
TPP has important implications for all member countries, especially Vietnam. According to experts, with the TTP, Vietnam's exports will increase 28.4 percent. The expected baseline export turnover in 2025 will be US$239 billion without TPP but the figure may jump to US$307 billion with TTP. In addition, GDP growth prospect with TPP is very high. According to the World Bank (WB), Vietnam’s average annual GDP growth was 7.4 percent in 1990-2007 phase and was forecasts at 5.6 percent in the 2008-2018 period. With TPP, the country’s GDP in 2025 may be higher than the estimated baseline by 10.5 percent.
Industry and Trade Minister Vu Huy Hoang said that TPP signing is an opportunity for people to access sources of high-quality, abundant and diversified goods and prices. TPP Agreement will also help create a clear, transparent and stable regulatory environment, thus helping Vietnam push up its economic restructuring, change growth pattern and bring benefits to citizens.
According to the WTO Centre, VCCI, once signed, TPP will open up a common trade market with nearly 800 million consumers, and 40 percent of global GDP. Together with that, TPP members unanimously agreed to build a "high standard", "new generation" pact of high liberalisation and broad scope, including both traditional and new-found contents and both commercial and non-commercial contents. Therefore, TPP will have a strong impact on the future of the economy as well as of every economic sector of Vietnam.
For Vietnam, the US is now the most important strategic partner as it is the largest export market of Vietnam. Vietnam's exports to the US averaged US$17 billion a year (2010-2012), representing a growth of 17.5 percent. TPP is forecast to have a positive on the bilateral trade. However, specialists also warned Vietnam against market opening pressures (commodity, services, government procurement, etc.) Furthermore, Vietnamese businesses may face more challenges arising from their ability to seize opportunities, avoid trade sanction risk and lawsuits, and sharpen competitiveness.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was originated from the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPSEP or P4). As of May 2015, TPP had 12 members, including New Zealand, Brunei, Chile, Singapore, Australia, Peru, the US, Malaysia, Vietnam, Canada, Mexico and Japan. Some other countries also expressed their intentions to join TPP negotiations, such as South Korea, Thailand, and even China.
TPP negotiation contents consist of trade in goods, trade in services and investment, investor-state dispute settlement mechanism (also known as corporate tribunals), intellectual property, State enterprises, government procurement, labour, and others.
Thu Ha
Vietnamese
