Vietnam is warned to be one out of five hardest-hit nations by the climate change and rise in sea levels in the world, with its Red river delta and Mekong delta to be most heavily impacted.
Existing Risk
At a seminar on supplying the press with information on climate change held in Hanoi on June 3, Associate Professor Dr Tran Thuc, head of the Vietnamese Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) said consequences of the climate change to Vietnam are very serious and the existing risk threatening the implementation of the country’s goal on poverty reduction because the poorest is living in hardest-hit areas by the climate change. It will also impact the realization of millennium goals and the country’s sustainable development. The seminar is co-organised by the United Nations (UN) and the Vietnamese Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology in response to the World Environment Day [June 5].
The sectors and localities which are highly vulnerable by the climate change include water resources, agriculture, and foodstuff security, health, flat country and coastal areas.
The climate change in Vietnam is obviously reflected by the rise of temperature. Mr Thuc said the country’s average temperature has increased by 0.5-0.7 degree Celsius over the past 50 years. The temperature in the winter represented a higher rise than in the summer and the rise of the north faster than the south. Its rainfall has risen and natural disasters like heavy rains, floods have been more and more devastating and frequent in central and southern regions. The rainfall however reduces in the dry season and droughts occur annually in almost all regions of the country. The climate change really made natural disasters especially storms, floods and droughts fiercer.
The number of hot days is more and more numerous while rains out of season and heavy rains are more popular, noticeably the rain spells in Hanoi and neighboring localities falling in November of 1984, 1996 and 2008.
The climate change also causes a sea level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that sea-levels would rise by between 28 cm and 59 cm by 2100, not exclusive a possibility of higher rise. Mr Thuc said that the IPCC’s prediction on global temperature change quite fits with the real measured figures. However, their statistics on sea-level rise is much lower than the measures via satellites. Recent surveys indicated sea-levels would rise only 5 cm to 1.4 m by 2100.
Public awareness is a primary factor
The national target programme on tackling with the climate change has been approved by the Prime Minister under Decision No. 158/2008/QD-Ttg in accordance with the motto “Joint Responsibility ButWith Differentiation” defined in the Convention on Climate Change. Vietnam will effectively carry out the easing programme if it receives full support on capital and technical transference from developed countries and international sources. The mission of the programme is to assess the impacts of climate change on sectors, fields and localities for each specific phase and build a feasible action plan to cope with the climate change for both long-term and long-term periods, in a bid to ensure the country’s sustainable development. It is necessary to build a low-carbon economy and join hands with the international community to curb the climate change and protect the earth’s climate system. The total cost for the programme is estimated at VND1.97 billion, including 50 per cent from foreign organizations, 30 per cent from the central budget, 10 per cent from localities and the remaining of 10 per cent from other organizations.
On the basis of researches made by foreign and domestic scientists, the programme aims to complete the building of master plans to deal with climate change in Vietnam, particularly that of the sea level rise. Based on the master plans, ministries and local sectors and units will map out their own plans. As scheduled, by the end of 2010, master plans on climate change in Vietnam for specific periods from 2010 to 2100 will be completed. The plans need to present fully scientific and practical foundations. By 2015, the program will continue to update the plans.
Mr Thuc said that there are currently some plans built on the high and medium emission levels of green house gases.
Owing to the complication of climate change and the gapped knowledge on the phenomenon in Vietnam and the world, plus with elements involved in psychology, economy, society, the most harmonious plan is the medium plan introduced to ministries, sectors and localities as a basis to assess impacts of the climate change and sea level rise as well as to build specific pan for their localities.
Under plan, Vietnam’s temperature is forecast to possibly rise by 2.3 degree Celsius by the end of the 21st century as compared to the period of 1980-1999. The temperature rise levels may fluctuate between 1.6 and 2.8 degree Celsius in different areas. The annual rainfall and that in the rain season in climate areas will all up while the rainfall in the dry season will tend to fall down, particularly in southern areas. For the whole country, the annual rainfall by the end of this century will increase by around 5 per cent against that of the period during 1980 and 1999. The rainfall in northern localities will be higher than that in the south. Especially, in the mid-21st century sea levels will rise by 30 cm and 74 cm by the century’s end. However, Mr Thuc also said the above-mentioned figures are not extremely sure-fire because the determinate error of scripts on emission levels of greenhouse gases, plus with the deep difference in climate of each locality.
In order to overcome the shortcomings, the IPCC suggested the application of allowable error for scripts and the usual update of figures, knowledge, models and calculation methods
Mai Ngoc
Vietnamese
