Vietnam will experience an economic growth rate of 5.9 percent in 2012, according to a recent report by Switzerland's Credit Suisse Bank.
The figure is higher than that of 2011 (5.8 percent) but lower than the bank’s previous prediction of 6.2 percent, according to Santitarn Sathirathai, a Credit Suisse economist.
He noted that the global economic downturn in conjunction with the Vietnamese Government’s tightening policies - especially the State Bank of Vietnam’s decision to perform tight controls to maintain a credit growth limit in the next five years - will have a significant impact on the country’s economy in 2012.
The report also attributed the highest rate of inflation recorded in August to tight monetary and credit policies.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also forecast a slightly lower Vietnam growth outcome, from 6.1 percent to 5.8 percent for 2011, increasing to 6.5 percent in 2012.It predicted that inflation would gradually ease to 18.7 percent, but this figure was increased primarily because of higher food prices, before later being moderated to 11.0 percent next year.
Meanwhile, in a report on Vietnam’s economic performance in August, the ANZ bank stated that the growth rate was maintained at a moderate percentage while inflation reached a peak in August.
The trade balance deteriorated following Vietnam’s decision to restrict gold exports, said the report, adding that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 5.8 percent against last year’s period.
Also according to ANZ, although the nominal retail index was up 25.9 percent from last year’s period, the growth of retail sales reached only 2.3 percent, much lower than the 2.9 percent of the previous month.
In the meantime, trade deficit remained high with export growth falling to 21 percent and imports increasing by 25.5 percent.
ANZ recommended maintaining the tight monetary policy in the short and medium term to curb inflation and stabilise the macro-economy in the future.
(CPV/VOVNEWS)
Vietnamese
