Export: Bright Spot in 2012 Economic Picture

In spite of economic slowdown, export turnover was estimated at nearly US$115 billion in 2012, representing a year on year increase of 18.3 per cent, higher than the initial target of 13 - 14 per cent. This was one of outstanding achievements of the Vietnamese economy in 2012.

 

According to statistics, the export value of key agricultural commodities in 2012 was higher than in 2011 because of increased volume. Typical products were rice, tea, coffee and rubber.

 

Rice export was estimated at 603,000 tonnes worth US$307 million in December, totalling 8.1 million tonnes valued at US$3.7 billion in the whole year, up 13.9 per cent in volume and 2.1 per cent in value year on year. Rice price dipped towards the end of the year. Export price averaged at US$457 per tonne in the first 11 months, down 10.4 per cent from a year earlier. There were big changes in rice export markets in 2012. China became the largest importer of Vietnamese rice with a 6.4-fold rise in volume and a 5.4-time rise in value. In contrast, many major markets slashed rice imports from Vietnam, including Indonesia, Singapore, Senegal, and the Philippines.

 

In addition to rice, coffee was a major export in 2012. In the 2011-2012 crop, Vietnam exported nearly 1.6 million tonnes worth nearly US$3.4 billion, up 23 per cent in volume. This was the biggest coffee export volume of Vietnam to date. In December, the country was estimated to export 201,000 tonnes valued at US$402 million, bringing the total coffee export volume and value to 1.76 million tonnes and US$3.74 billion in 2012, up 40.3 per cent in volume and 36 per cent in value over 2011. The United States and Germany were the biggest importers of Vietnamese coffee with the respective market shares of 12.03 per cent and 11.77 per cent thanks to their significant rises in volume and value. Markedly, shipments to Indonesia surged 5.6 folds in volume and value over 2011.

 

Vietnam's seafood exports brought in US$6.18 billion, representing an-year rise of nearly 1 per cent. Specifically, the country fetched over US$2.2 billion from shrimp exports, earned nearly US$1.8 billion from catfish, roughly equal to the value in 2011, and raked in US$2.2 billion from seafood, up about 19 per cent.

 

In 2012, the European Union continued to be Vietnam’s largest export market. Vietnam’s exports to the EU were forecast to reach more than US$20 billion, up 21.3 per cent year on year. The followers were the United States, ASEAN and Japan.

 

Particularly, the FDI business sector played an important role in Vietnam's exportation in 2012. According to statistics, the total export turnover increased by US$16.2 billion in the first 11 months, of which the FDI business sector contributed more than US$14.8 billion (excluding crude oil) or US$15.8 billion (including crude oil). Of the sum, telephones, computers components, electronic devices, and parts contributed US$8.5 billion to the increased value.

 

Despite robust growth in 2012, Vietnam needs to be more precautious to have appropriate strategies in this volatile world in 2013, according to experts.

 

It is very hard to anticipate rice prices in the first quarter of 2013 but it is certain that Vietnamese rice will face stiffer competition than in early months of 2012. Vietnam will have to compete with low-grade rice Myanmar and high-grade variety with Thailand if these countries sell to reduce their stocks. Against this backdrop, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will timely provide market information for enterprises and coordinate [with other authorities] to introduce suitable export policies and mechanisms in support of enterprises. According to the plan, Vietnam will stockpile 2.5 million tonnes of rice in winter-spring and summer-autumn crops.

 

At a recent meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai told the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the Ministry of Industry and Trade to review and assess shrimp and pangasius production situations to resolve difficulties for farmers and boost exports in 2013 because, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), only 20 per cent or so of pangasius exporters are maintaining stable operation while the rest is in moderation. Vietnam needs to have specific seafood development strategies to make seafood a key export in this complex, volatile world.

 

However, in 2013, Vietnam’s exports are expected to be boosted up by many positive factors. Economic growth of the world in general and Vietnam’s important trade partners in particular like the EU and South Korea is expected to grow at a higher rate in 2013. Prices of Vietnam’s major exports like rice, coffee and tea also tend to rise in the world market in 2013. In addition, the production capacity of exporters - major beneficiaries of the government-backed bailout policy - will improve in 2013. For this reason, the country’s export turnover is forecast to reach US129 billion in the year.

 

According to experts, exporters must utilise their internal resources, avoid chasing after the quantity, and approach potential markets and niche markets.

 

In addition, Vietnam needs to promote roles of industry associations in trade negotiations and coordination with authorities to seek new markets, promote trade and deal with nontariff technical barriers to its exports.