Export Hard to Reach Target

Vietnam’s export slid 14.2 per cent in the first eight months of 2009 and the export growth target will be missed. Of course, we have to double our effort to realise the target of 3 per cent export expansion set by the Government and the National Assembly.

 

In fact, that task is very difficult in the current context. We will spare no effort to achieve this target but the final result depends on many factors, not only internal efforts of competent State organs but also efforts of enterprises, foreign market demands, and recoveries of global economies, especially major Vietnamese importers like the EU, the US and Japan in addition to ASEAN and Asia-Pacific regions. Meanwhile, according to many forecasts, the Asia - Pacific region will recover more quickly but it is not the largest consumer of Vietnamese goods and the competition there is also very severe.

In my opinion, the failure to achieve the export goal will cause negative impacts on trade balance, payment balance and forex earning of the country as well as enterprises. Vietnam must have to make revisions like balancing export-boosting measures but controlling import spending, adjusting payment balance to ensure macroeconomic stability and economic spending balance.

 

To realise the export growth of 3 per cent, or US$64.68 billion in 2009, Vietnam must make US$37 billion in the last four months, or nearly US$6.2 billion monthly on average. This is an extremely very high goal. However, we should not be too worried about our export prospect because Vietnam is still keeping good rate in comparison with regional countries.

Te first cause is the sliding export price. Although the export turnover fell, export volume did not decline. Even, several commodities like coffee, pepper, cashew nut and rice increased from 10 per cent to 58 per cent. Particularly, pepper export soared 43 per cent, rice nearly 43 per cent, rubber 8 per cent and crude oil 6 per cent. It is still encouraging as export volume remains high.

 

Secondly, the value of temporarily imported goods for re-export slumped although the volume rose. For instance, the temporary import of petroleum for re-export increased 60 per cent in volume but tumbled 18 per cent in value. Thus, the quantity growth is unable to offset the price decline as the price peaked in 2008.

In my opinion, the current policies of the government are facilitating enterprises to boost export. Additionally, businesses also enjoy lower input costs. The matter is whether enterprises can take the advantage of such favourable conditions to go out of current difficulties. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has applied many policies and solutions to extricate difficulties for enterprises like seeking new markets and expanding export activities.

 

The current most important task is expanding export markets and renovating trade promotion activities. We will revise the Decision 279 on national trade promotion programme in the 2006-2010 period to create most favourable conditions for enterprises to approach trade promotion programmes in foreign nations as well as invite foreign companies to explore trade opportunities in Vietnam.

What are the short-term solutions for the rest of the year?
In the last four months of the year, if we successfully tap our market advantages and internal forces, we may be able to increase our export revenues. We need to focus from high-grade to medium-grade market segments, reduce costs to edge up competitiveness and step up exports of key commodities like seafood, coffee and apparel when they are offered preferential treatments.

Besides, China will help Vietnamese enterprises to join trade promotion activities in China to enlarge export into this market.

 

While major markets like the US and the EU dented Vietnam’s imports, the demand from Japan, Africa, Russia and South Korea surged. The Ministry of Industry and Trade pointed out that export restructuring and new markets will make export breakthroughs. Thus, Vietnam should focus on exploring and directing potential markets to increase exports.

 

Industry associations need to unite to take full advantage of export opportunities. In the coming time, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development will jointly hold a meeting to seek measures to assist enterprises to obtain high export results. Especially, the three ministries will propose the Government to introduce rice export policy to avoid price-pressing trading if they find necessary.