Credit Surges, Quality Well Controlled at Major Banks

Credit was widely regarded as the strongest positive development of Vietnam’s banking sector in 2025, functioning as a core instrument to support economic growth. From the start of the year, banks pursued credit expansion early, as credit quotas were allocated publicly and in full, accompanied by a steady rollout of lending support measures. As a result, outstanding credit accelerated sharply and reached a new record of VND18.4 quadrillion (US$736 billion), rising 17.87% from the beginning of 2025 and 19.41% year on year as of December 24, 2025. This represented the fastest pace of credit growth recorded in many years.

Military Bank’s total assets are estimated at nearly VND1.5 quadrillion (US$60 billion) by the end of 2025

Major banks post strong growth

According to the business results of the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), as of December 31, 2025, the bank’s total assets exceeded VND3.25 quadrillion (US$130 billion), up 20% from 2024, maintaining its position as Vietnam’s largest bank by total assets. Outstanding credit surpassed VND2.3 quadrillion (US$92 billion), an increase of 15.2%, while mobilized capital rose to more than VND2.4 quadrillion (US$96 billion), up 13.7%.

Credit quality remained well controlled, with the non-performing loan ratio under Circular No. 31/2024/TT-NHNN at 1.2%. By the end of 2025, BIDV’s consolidated pre-tax profit exceeded VND36 trillion (US$1.44 billion), representing an estimated increase of more than 12%. Key safety and efficiency indicators were sustained, with return on assets (ROA) at 1.01%, return on equity (ROE) at 19.02%, and the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) at 9%.

For 2026, BIDV targets credit growth of 15-16% in line with limits set by the State Bank of Vietnam, non-performing loans capped at no more than 1.5%, pre-tax profit growth of around 10%, and continued full compliance with prudential safety ratios.

By the end of 2025, the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) had fulfilled all key targets assigned by the State Bank of Vietnam, with capital mobilization rising 10% and credit expanding 15%. Scale growth progressed alongside effective quality control, with safety indicators managed in line with Circulars 31 and 52, including a non-performing loan ratio below 1%, reflecting solid credit quality. Vietcombank is the only bank in Vietnam rated by three international credit rating agencies at the same level as the national credit ceiling, reinforcing its safety and sustainability profile.

According to leadership of the Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank), in 2025 the bank completed all assigned plan targets. By the end of 2025, total assets were estimated at VND2.8 quadrillion (US$112 billion), up about 18% from 2024, while outstanding credit was estimated at nearly VND2 quadrillion (US$80 billion), an increase of roughly 16% year on year. The non-performing loan ratio remained below 1.5%, and the loan loss coverage ratio stayed at a high level. Mobilized capital was estimated at nearly VND2 quadrillion (US$80 billion), up 13% from the end of 2024.

For the Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Agribank), by the end of 2025 total assets exceeded VND2.5 quadrillion (US$100 billion), up 12.1% from the beginning of the year. Loans to the economy reached nearly VND2 quadrillion (US$80 billion), rising by more than 16%, while mobilized capital totaled VND2.35 quadrillion (US$94 billion). The non-performing loan ratio was maintained below 1.5%.

At Military Bank (MB), as of the end of 2025, pre-tax profit was expected to reach VND33.7 trillion (US$1.35 billion), up around 17% from consolidated profit in 2024 of VND28.829 trillion (US$1.15 billion). MB’s total assets by the end of 2025 were estimated at nearly VND1.5 quadrillion (US$60 billion), representing growth of about 33% from the beginning of the year and exceeding the established target. Mobilized capital reached approximately VND1.05 quadrillion (US$42 billion).

Banking system credit is projected to rise 4.4% in Q1 2026 and reach 18.1% for the whole year

Cautious outlook for pre-tax profit growth in 2026

According to results from the Business Trends Survey of credit institutions for the first quarter of 2026 released by the Forecasting, Statistics, and Monetary and Financial Stability Department of the State Bank of Vietnam, credit institutions assessed customer demand for banking services (including deposits, payment services, cards, and borrowing) as continuing to improve at a stronger pace than in the previous quarter, although still below expectations in the prior survey. Loan and deposit demand are assessed to improve more than demand for payment and card services during the same period.

In the first quarter of 2026 and throughout 2026, credit institutions are expected to see continued improvement in customer demand for banking services compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 and the previous year, with loan demand projected to strengthen more than demand for deposits and payment services.

Based on credit institutions’ assessments, VND deposit interest rates recorded a slight uptick in the fourth quarter of 2025 to accommodate higher capital needs toward year end. Banking system liquidity in the fourth quarter of 2025 and throughout 2025, compared with 2024, continued to improve and remained in good condition, although the pace of improvement was lower than assessments for 2024. Credit institutions expect liquidity conditions to improve further in the first quarter of 2026 and throughout 2026 compared with 2025.

Survey results showed that credit institutions estimated system-wide capital mobilization growth in 2025 at 14.1%, marking the highest annual forecast since the March 2020 survey. System-wide capital mobilization is projected to increase by an average of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 16.3% for the full year 2026. Mobilization with maturities under six months is still forecast by credit institutions to expand more strongly in 2026. Total outstanding credit of the banking system is projected to rise by 4.4% in the first quarter of 2026 and reach 18.1% in 2026, up 1.5 percentage points from expectations in the September 2025 survey and representing the highest annual expectation since 2020.

According to the survey, overall business conditions and pre-tax profit of the banking system in 2025 continued to improve, although results remained below expectations in the prior survey. Entering 2026, business conditions of credit institutions are viewed as maintaining positive prospects. However, credit institutions remain cautious in projecting pre-tax profit growth, with expectations for 2026 below those for 2025, despite credit growth expected to remain favorable at above 18% and non-performing loans projected to stay well controlled.

In particular, internal factors continued to support credit institutions’ business operations, with 77.2% of credit institutions assessing and expecting internal factors to contribute to improved business conditions in 2025. In 2026, prospects from internal factors are assessed more positively, with the proportion rising to 86.1%, reflecting a generally stable internal foundation of the credit institution system and expectations of further improvement. In addition, prospects from external factors are assessed more positively in 2026, with the share of credit institutions expecting improvement increasing to 78.1%, pointing to a more favorable external environment in the coming year.

By Quynh Anh, Vietnam Business Forum