Sprint Gives WiMAX a Real Boost

The WiMAX community, powered by Intel, desperately needed a major network operator to commit to deploying WiMAX. Even with a $600 million infusion from Intel, Clearwire wasn't enough to make a splash because it's a portable-data-only network.  

Sprint is another story. It has two fully mobile wireless networks up and running, one based on CDMA2000 including 1xEV-DO, and the other based on Nextel's iDEN technology.  

Sprint is also involved in a joint venture with a number of cable companies that intend to offer their customers wireless options including voice and data with full mobility and integration with Wi-Fi for better in-building service. With the WiMAX announcement, these companies will be entering the high-speed wireless Internet game in competition with wired DSL and wired cable company data services. The cable companies recently indicated they might go mobile with WiMAX, so they will have the Sprint EV-DO Rev A network and its WiMAX footprint, currently targeting about one-third of the U.S. population. All of these companies could be competing with each other.  

The WiMAX community desperately needed this first real win for WiMAX and the WiMAX community is probably celebrating as you read this. But let's look at exactly what Sprint has where, how WiMAX stacks up and what I think we can expect from this announcement.  

First Things First  
WiMAX is NOT a 4G technology. In fact, if you search for a definition of 4G using Google, you won't find one. The ITU defined 3G, but its site provides several presentations from various organizations and companies attempting to define 4G. I found no clear, concise definition. Most discussions about 4G talk about a full IP system with Quality of Service and DSL-type speeds. I guess the WiMAX community thinks WiMAX is 4G based on these criteria. However, if you base the definition on performance, it is clear that WiMAX is only on a par with HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A when it comes to bits per Hz. With IMS, there will be little difference.  

Because these technologies use different bandwidths, it is difficult to do a head-to-head comparison. When we mapped WiMAX, UMTS/HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A (as well as other technologies) using a 10-MHz channel allocation, we found that theoretical peak data speeds of WiMAX exceeded those of the other technologies. However, when we normalized for typical data speeds, the three were close to a dead heat and I dispute the claim by Sprint CEO Gary Forsee that this fourth-generation network would be about four times faster than current high-speed cellular data networks. If that is the case, why doesn't Sprint put WiMAX in at 1900 MHz to cover its entire footprint instead of on 2.5 GHz where it will only cover about 100 million potential customers by the end of 2008?  

The WiMAX folks will tell you that adding MIMO (multiple antennas) to their system gives them an advantage, but both UMTS and EV-DO have MIMO components in their next releases so the comparisons will remain the same: essentially dead even. (Just a note, tower owners charge their customers per antenna, so adding more antennas drives up the opex.)  

Getting WiMAX to Market  Now the real work begins: installing the network, readying devices for market and determining real-world data speeds and how much capacity per cell sector to build out. (Like all wireless and some wired technologies, the total sector capacity is shared among the total number of customers.)  
Sprint says it chose WiMAX because of the large number of vendors that are in the market or are coming to the market with product, and because some competitors are currently single-source suppliers. This will turn out to be the right decision if WiMAX lives up to its hype. Yes, trials are underway. Motorola, among others, has a number in progress. However, this will be the first full-scale deployment and, as with any new technology, there will be lessons to be learned, tweaking to be done and compatibility issues and other glitches to be resolved.  

It will be interesting to watch how WiMAX fairs on 2.5 GHz competing head-on with full mobility players and their one-way TV systems (MediaFLO and DVB-H), the muni-Wi-Fi crowd, wired and cable companies and any new companies that might acquire AWS licenses. With LTE and 802.20 coming by 2010 or so, another question for Sprint and the WiMAX community in general is whether they can deploy and earn a return an investment in two to three years? Is there a demand for more broadband services  
Conclusions  Will Sprint be successful with WiMAX? There is no way that a standalone, data-only system (even with VoIP) can make money. But Sprint is adding another network into its system and will be sharing customer support facilities, back-end services, tower locations and other infrastructure that will enable it to bring WiMAX to market more quickly than a new operator. It will be able to bundle WiMAX with other services and, at some point, offer devices that will work over both its CDMA network and WiMAX network if there is sufficient demand. If anyone can make a go of WiMAX, it is a company such as Sprint with other revenue streams to support its business. It won't be long before we know if this new wireless technology, brought to us by the computer industry, can compete with technologies that have been brought to us by the wireless industry and new technologies that are only two or three years away.  

 
Now that Sprint has announced its intentions, other major wireless providers can be expected do follow and we will see if the WiMAX community can really deliver what it has been promising or if WiMAX is simply one more 3G technology!