1:34:00 PM | 14/10/2008
The Government of Vietnam, at a meeting to discuss socio-economic situations of 2008, submitted to the National Assembly’s Standing Committee three scenarios of economic growth for next year.
In the first scenario, Vietnam’s GDP will grow 7 per cent in 2009 if the global economy is still in difficulty, prices of basic commodities remain high but have no sudden rise, and financial system turmoil is partially cleared up.
In the second scenario, Vietnam’s economy will expand 7.5 per cent if the global economy sees a recovery.
In the third or worst scenario, if the world economy continues to be stagnant, inflation continues to surge, then Vietnam will have economic growth of 6.5 per cent.
Speaking at the meeting, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Hong Phuc said the government leans towards the first scenario.
Phung Quoc Hien, chairman of the National Assembly’s Finance and Budget Committee, said: “GDP growing at 6.5 per cent-7 per cent next year is reasonable, but at 7 per cent or 7.5 per cent is difficult.”
Hien explained that 2009 will see the point-of-fall of anti-inflation process, a possible reduction of overseas remittance due to the U.S financial crisis, difficulties faced by small and medium enterprises and smaller FDI inflows.
Phuc said that Vietnam will not have been affected much from the global financial crisis because the U.S and Europe are holding 18-20 per cent of Vietnam’s exports, which are mainly essential goods such as agriculture products, food and garments.
“Impact of investment to Vietnam is also small,” because the U.S and Europe are not the biggest investors in Vietnam, he said. (Investment)
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