Vietnam's Urbanlisation Prospect by 2020

With assistance from the World Bank (WB) and the Japan Policy and Human Resource Development. (JPHRD), domestic and foreign experts have made forecasts on Vietnam’s urban development by 2020.

 

Which cities will see fast population growth?
The transition of the Southeast Asian region’s roles has put Vietnam into a strategic position with open trade exchanges and positive international integration policies. This has led to establishment of industrial sectors not only in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City but also many urban areas nationwide.

The entry to the WTO has brought Vietnam big impacts on Vietnam’s economic development. The population growth in most the city’s urban areas is forecast to continue happening in the time to come.

The prospect of a dynamic urbanisation process was also forecast, based on economic structure transition into industrialisation and modernisation with the high population growth in urban areas and mass migration from countryside to cities. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will witness a stronger inflow of migration in the future.

Which cities will be expanded?

Therefore, it is necessary to invest in and expand urban areas, aiming to meet the fast-growing population demand.

 

Metropolitan planning started in Hanoi which was merged with Ha Tay province and several administrative units, meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang has just stood at the space planning. The two cities of Hai Phong and Can Tho have prepared their development strategies and other cities have still been general planning period.
Land use transition and risk of fast population growth in Hanoi, HCM City, Da Nang, Hai Phong and Can Tho are at an alarming level, which is easily understandable. This can be eased if the overload is shared by other urban areas.

 

Assess methods based on effectiveness-cost consideration is essential to reduce pressures for key cities of Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Hai Phong and Can Tho via boosting cities’ development such as Bien Hoa, Nha Trang, Hue, Da Lat, Vung Tau, Buon Ma Thuot, Long Xuyen, Vinh, Tan Hiep, Quy Nhon, Hai Duong, Rach Gia and Thuan Hiep.

Urban areas’ prospect

Hanoi and Hai Phong play a key role in the Red River Delta region. However, the role will be enhanced if the two cities’ area is expanded to the cities of Hai Duong, Vinh Yen and Bac Ninh.

In the Red River Delta region, Hanoi, Hai Phong and Hai Duong had the highest labour force in 2005 and are forecast to continue the lead in 2020. Meanwhile, Ha Long, Mong Cai and Cam Pha cities will be key areas for northern Quang Ninh province which has the highest number of labourers working at factories in the north eastern region of Vietnam.

Phu Tho and Thai Nguyen were the two provinces with the highest number of salary earners in the north western region in 2005 and the position will be maintained by 2020.

 

The recovery of Viet Tri city and the development of Thai Nguyen city and Phu Tho town are expected to bring a new prospect for the south’s development. Urban areas including Hoa Binh town and Yen Bai, Lao Cai and Dien Bien Phu will become a driving force for the midland and northern mountainous region.

As for the central coastal region, Da Nang city is the centre of the region, Thanh Hoa and Vinh cities are located in the northern central region and Quy Nhon and Nha Trang are in the southern central region.

Buon Ma Thuot is the economic hub of the Central Highlands region, followed by Da Lat city. The south east’s development and urbanisation prospect is led by Ho Chi Minh City and supported by neighbouring cities of Bien Hoa, Thu Dau Mot and Vung Tau.

 

Can Tho is an axis city of the Mekong Delta region which also home to My Tho, Rach Gia, Long Xuyen, Vinh Long, Soc Trang and Ca Mau towns.

Appearance of gateway urban areas
Mountainous cities namely Lao Cai, Mong Cai, Lang Son and Cao Bang will serve as border gates for trade exchanges with China. Dien Bien Phu city will help boost trade ties with Laos and Hong Ngu and Ha Tien town will be commercial gateway to Cambodia.

 

Vietnam’s ethnic minority community has chances to communicate with international community via open and integration policies. Tay is the biggest ethnic group living the midland and northern mountainous region, mainly residing in the northeast from the Red River Delta region to coastal delta regions and Thai group has many diversified tribes in the northwest which is adjacent Laos and China.

 

In the northwest along, most of urban population of Cao Bang and Lang Son provinces are ethnic minority people, accounting for 68 per cent and 50 per cent each respectively.

In the southern region, a large number of Kh'me ethnic group is living in the Mekong Delta region. Therefore, urban development strategies, including urban upgrade ones must based on this group’s socio-cultural demand.

 

Time of managers and policy makers Vietnam’s future urbanisation prospect has raised planning issues for regional, provincial and urban area development.
General objectives for the regional development are aimed to improve each region’s competitive advantages, which will help boost others’ socio-economic development, focusing on developing economic centres, services, industrial parks and export processing zones and enhancing the cooperation between the regions and with other countries.

 

Managers and policy makers need to the country’s weakness as well as capacity in the implementation process of urbanisation. They should also assess real demands, latent risks, necessary costs and financial and human resource preparations.

Future challenges will be more complicated than those in the past. Strategies and planning policies are required to deal with internal struggle in the whole system in order to remove poverty and improve the country’s living condition.

 

Sustainable development is an urgent need in Vietnam. Inter-provincial cooperatives and inter-urban area cooperation can bring strength for the country to overcome financial and human resource difficulties. Limited resources of land and water can be tackled via inter-government relationship, which will help maximally reduce costs and maximise development benefits.